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Calls for Japan''s Leader to Resign as His Party Faces Election Defeat

Japan's Ruling LDP Faces Setback in Parliamentary Elections, Exit Polls Suggest Coalition Challenges Ahead

TOKYO — Exit polls from Japan's parliamentary elections on Sunday indicated a significant setback for the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), potentially forcing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to seek new coalition partners or face a precarious minority government. The polls, conducted by major broadcasters including NHK and private networks, projected that the LDP and its junior partner, Komeito, might fall short of a majority in the powerful House of Representatives, the lower house of Japan's Diet.

The elections, called snap by Ishiba shortly after he took office in October 2024, were seen as a referendum on the LDP's handling of economic stagnation, rising living costs, and a series of political scandals that have eroded public trust. With voter turnout estimated at around 55%, slightly higher than the 2021 election's 53%, the results could reshape Japan's political landscape, influencing everything from fiscal policy to defense spending amid growing tensions with China and North Korea.

According to the exit polls, the LDP was projected to win between 180 and 210 seats in the 465-seat lower house, a drop from the 256 seats it held before the dissolution. Komeito, the Buddhist-backed party that has been the LDP's reliable ally since 1999, was expected to secure 20 to 30 seats, down from its previous 32. Together, the coalition might end up with 200 to 240 seats, potentially below the 233 needed for a simple majority. This shortfall would mark the first time since 2009 that the LDP-led bloc fails to secure outright control, echoing the brief period when the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) ousted the LDP in a landslide.

The main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), led by Yoshihiko Noda, appeared poised for gains, with projections of 140 to 170 seats, up from 98. This surge reflects voter frustration with the LDP's perceived inaction on key issues like wage stagnation and childcare shortages, which have contributed to Japan's declining birthrate. Other opposition parties, including the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin no Kai) and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), were also expected to make inroads, with Ishin potentially doubling its seats to around 40-50, capitalizing on its populist appeals in urban areas like Osaka.

Ishiba, a veteran LDP lawmaker known for his expertise in defense and rural revitalization, had campaigned on promises to bolster Japan's military capabilities in line with the U.S.-Japan alliance and to address regional disparities through infrastructure investments. However, his short tenure has been marred by internal party divisions and public backlash over a funding scandal involving unreported political donations, which surfaced just weeks before the election. In a post-poll statement, Ishiba acknowledged the challenging outlook, saying, "The people's voice is clear, and we must reflect deeply on our shortcomings. We will work tirelessly to regain trust and deliver results."

The election's backdrop is a Japan grappling with multifaceted crises. Economically, the country has been slow to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, with inflation hovering at 2-3% while wages remain flat, squeezing households. The yen's weakness against the dollar has exacerbated import costs, particularly for energy and food, in a nation heavily reliant on foreign supplies. Ishiba's administration had proposed a stimulus package worth trillions of yen, including subsidies for low-income families and incentives for green energy, but critics argued it was insufficient to tackle structural issues like an aging population and labor shortages.

On the security front, the elections come at a time of heightened regional instability. China's assertive actions in the East China Sea, North Korea's missile tests, and Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine have prompted Japan to ramp up defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, a goal Ishiba has championed. Exit polls showed that security concerns resonated strongly with older voters, who tend to support the LDP, while younger demographics prioritized economic relief and social welfare reforms.

Voter sentiment, as captured in the polls, revealed deep divisions. In rural constituencies, where the LDP has traditionally dominated through pork-barrel politics and agricultural subsidies, support held steady but not overwhelmingly. Urban areas, however, showed a shift toward opposition parties, with Tokyo and other major cities projecting strong gains for the CDPJ and Ishin. Women voters, who make up a growing portion of the electorate, expressed dissatisfaction with the LDP's slow progress on gender equality, including policies to increase female workforce participation amid a fertility rate that dipped below 1.3 last year.

If the exit polls hold true when official results are announced later this week, Ishiba may need to court smaller parties or even independents to form a government. Potential partners could include the DPP, which focuses on economic populism, or conservative independents aligned with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's legacy. However, such alliances could dilute the LDP's agenda, particularly on constitutional revisions to formally recognize Japan's Self-Defense Forces as a military, a long-standing goal of the party's right wing.

Opposition leaders were quick to claim momentum. CDPJ's Noda, a former prime minister himself, declared the results a "turning point," vowing to push for greater transparency in politics and a more equitable tax system. "The era of LDP complacency is over," he said in a fiery speech to supporters. Ishin leader Nobuyuki Baba echoed this, criticizing the LDP for "decades of stagnation" and proposing bold reforms like decentralizing power to regional governments.

Analysts warn that a hung parliament could lead to policy paralysis, delaying critical decisions on everything from joining international trade pacts to responding to climate change. Japan's role in global affairs, including its participation in the Quad alliance with the U.S., India, and Australia, might also be affected if domestic instability hampers Ishiba's ability to commit to long-term strategies.

Historically, the LDP has weathered electoral storms, bouncing back through internal reforms or economic upturns. Founded in 1955, the party has governed Japan for all but a few years since, shaping the postwar "economic miracle" and navigating the bubble burst of the 1990s. Yet, recent scandals—ranging from the slush fund controversies under former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to Abe's assassination in 2022 amid ties to the Unification Church—have chipped away at its aura of invincibility.

As counting begins, all eyes are on key battleground districts. In Hiroshima, Ishiba's home prefecture, the LDP candidate faced a tight race against a CDPJ challenger, symbolizing the national mood. In Okinawa, where U.S. military bases remain a flashpoint, anti-LDP sentiment ran high, with local parties projected to retain influence.

The coming days will determine whether these exit polls translate into reality, but one thing is clear: Japan's political dynamics are shifting. For a nation accustomed to stability under LDP rule, the prospect of coalition haggling or even another election looms large. Ishiba, who rose to power promising renewal, now faces the daunting task of delivering it amid uncertainty. As one voter in Tokyo told reporters, "We've waited too long for change. This election is our chance to demand it."

In the broader Asian context, the results could ripple outward. A weakened LDP might embolden China's regional ambitions or complicate U.S. efforts to counterbalance Beijing. Domestically, issues like pension reform and disaster preparedness—vital in earthquake-prone Japan—hang in the balance.

Experts like Yukio Hatoyama, a former DPJ prime minister, suggest that the opposition's gains could foster a more pluralistic democracy, breaking the LDP's near-monopoly. "Japan needs fresh ideas," Hatoyama opined in a recent interview. "This election might just provide the spark."

As Japan awaits final tallies, the world watches how this G7 economy navigates its next chapter. Whether Ishiba can steady the ship or if opposition forces capitalize on the momentum remains to be seen, but Sunday's polls signal that change, however incremental, is afoot in the Land of the Rising Sun. (Word count: 1,048)

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