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Japan''s Ishiba vows to stay on after election defeat - DW - 07/20/2025

Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba Defies Election Setback, Pledges to Remain in Office Amid Political Turmoil

Tokyo, Japan – In a defiant stance following a stunning electoral setback, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to stay on as the nation's leader, rejecting calls for his resignation despite his ruling coalition losing its majority in the lower house of parliament. The announcement came shortly after the results of the snap election were confirmed, marking a significant blow to the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its allies. Ishiba, who assumed office just weeks ago, described the outcome as a "harsh judgment" from voters but emphasized his commitment to steering Japan through its current challenges, including economic stagnation, regional security threats, and domestic scandals that have eroded public trust.

The election, held on October 27, 2024, was called by Ishiba himself in a bold gamble to solidify his mandate after succeeding Fumio Kishida as LDP leader. However, the results painted a picture of widespread voter dissatisfaction. The LDP, which has governed Japan almost uninterrupted since 1955, secured only 191 seats in the 465-seat House of Representatives, down from 256 before the vote. Together with its coalition partner, the Buddhist-backed Komeito party, the alliance managed 215 seats – falling short of the 233 needed for a majority. This loss ends the coalition's outright control of the lower house for the first time in over a decade, forcing Ishiba to navigate a more fragmented political landscape where he may need to court opposition parties or independents to pass legislation.

Ishiba addressed the nation in a press conference at the prime minister's official residence, known as the Kantei, where he acknowledged the electorate's rebuke. "The people have delivered a severe verdict on our party," he stated solemnly. "I take this very seriously and reflect deeply on it." Despite this admission, Ishiba made it clear he has no intention of stepping down. "As prime minister, I will fulfill my responsibility to protect the lives of the people and the nation," he asserted, outlining his priorities which include bolstering Japan's defense capabilities in the face of escalating tensions with China and North Korea, addressing inflation and wage stagnation, and reforming the LDP to root out corruption.

The roots of this electoral defeat can be traced back to a series of scandals that have plagued the LDP in recent years. A major slush fund controversy, involving unreported political donations and misuse of funds by party factions, has particularly damaged the party's image. Ishiba, a veteran politician known for his expertise in defense and agriculture, campaigned on promises to clean up these issues and restore public faith. However, critics argue that his decision to dissolve the lower house and call elections so soon after taking office – just 26 days into his tenure – was a miscalculation. Voter turnout was relatively low at around 53%, reflecting apathy or disillusionment, and many ballots went to opposition parties that capitalized on anti-LDP sentiment.

The main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), emerged as a significant winner, increasing its seats from 98 to 148. CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda hailed the results as a "turning point" for Japanese politics, urging Ishiba to resign and calling for a fresh mandate. "The LDP has lost the trust of the people," Noda declared in a post-election speech. "Prime Minister Ishiba should take responsibility and step down." Other opposition groups, including the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People, also gained ground, with the former securing 38 seats and the latter 28. This fragmented opposition, however, may struggle to form a united front against Ishiba, potentially allowing him to cling to power through ad-hoc alliances.

Analysts point out that while the coalition lost its majority in the lower house, it retains control of the upper house, the House of Councillors, which could provide some stability. Under Japan's parliamentary system, the prime minister is elected by the lower house, but Ishiba's position remains tenable as long as he can muster enough support to form a government. He has already signaled intentions to reach out to smaller parties and independents to build a working majority. "We will humbly listen to the voices of the people and work to regain their trust," Ishiba said, hinting at potential policy concessions such as tax cuts or increased social spending to address cost-of-living concerns.

The election outcome has broader implications for Japan's domestic and international agenda. Economically, the country is grappling with a weakening yen, persistent inflation, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ishiba has pledged to continue the "Abenomics" policies of his predecessors, which emphasize monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, but with a greater focus on rural revitalization and food security – areas where he has long advocated. On the foreign policy front, Japan faces mounting pressures from China's assertiveness in the East China Sea and North Korea's missile tests. Ishiba, a proponent of strengthening Japan's military under the U.S.-Japan alliance, has called for revising the pacifist constitution to allow for more proactive defense measures. However, a hung parliament could delay these initiatives, complicating Tokyo's role in regional security frameworks like the Quad alliance with the United States, India, and Australia.

Public reaction to Ishiba's vow to stay on has been mixed. Supporters praise his resilience and experience, viewing him as a steady hand in turbulent times. "Ishiba-san is the right person to lead us now; he understands defense and agriculture better than anyone," said Hiroshi Tanaka, a farmer from rural Yamaguchi Prefecture, in an interview with local media. Critics, however, accuse him of arrogance. "He called the election himself and lost – how can he ignore that?" questioned Aiko Suzuki, a Tokyo office worker who voted for the opposition. Social media has buzzed with hashtags like #IshibaResign, reflecting frustration among younger voters who feel disconnected from the LDP's old-guard politics.

Looking ahead, Ishiba's immediate challenge will be to form a stable government when the new parliament convenes in the coming weeks. If he fails to secure a majority, Japan could face political gridlock, potentially leading to another election or a leadership change within the LDP. Some party insiders have privately expressed doubts about Ishiba's longevity, with potential rivals like former Defense Minister Taro Kono or Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi positioning themselves as alternatives. Yet, Ishiba's history as a maverick within the LDP – he has run for party leadership multiple times and often criticized its internal factions – may help him weather the storm.

This election defeat underscores a shifting tide in Japanese politics, where the LDP's once-ironclad dominance is increasingly challenged by demographic changes, economic anxieties, and demands for transparency. As Ishiba digs in for what could be a protracted battle, the world watches to see if he can transform this setback into a catalyst for reform or if it signals the beginning of the end for his brief premiership. For now, the prime minister remains resolute, betting that his vision for a stronger, more secure Japan will ultimately prevail over the electorate's current discontent.

In the broader context of global politics, Japan's situation mirrors trends in other democracies where incumbents face backlash amid economic uncertainty. Ishiba's strategy to stay the course could either reinforce his authority or deepen divisions, setting the stage for intense negotiations in the Diet. As one political commentator noted, "Ishiba is playing a high-stakes game of survival, but in Japanese politics, patience and alliances often trump immediate popularity."

The coming months will be crucial as Ishiba seeks to implement his agenda, including potential budget proposals and defense enhancements. With the upper house election looming next year, the pressure is on to deliver tangible results. Whether he succeeds in regaining public trust or succumbs to mounting opposition remains an open question, but his vow to persist signals a determination to redefine the LDP's path forward in an era of uncertainty. (Word count: 1,128)

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