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AAA Forecasts Record-Breaking 2025 Thanksgiving Travel

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  //travel-leisure.news-articles.net/content/2025/ .. ts-record-breaking-2025-thanksgiving-travel.html
  Published in Travel and Leisure on Tuesday, November 18th 2025 at 9:18 GMT by Travel + Leisure

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AAA Forecasts Record‑Breaking 2025 Thanksgiving Travel: What It Means for Travelers and the Industry

Travel + Leisure’s latest coverage of the American Automobile Association’s (AAA) 2025 Thanksgiving travel forecast offers a detailed look at how U.S. travelers are planning to celebrate the holiday and how the travel industry is poised to benefit from a surge in activity. According to AAA, the upcoming Thanksgiving weekend will set new records for both the number of people traveling and the total dollars spent on holiday travel. The analysis draws on AAA’s proprietary data, industry reports, and a handful of ancillary articles that broaden the context of these predictions.

1. The Numbers: A Record‑Setting Weekend

A. “Million‑Dollar” Increase in Travelers

AAA estimates that more than 10.2 million travelers will head out of their homes during the 2025 Thanksgiving period—a 15 % jump over the 2024 holiday season. This spike is the largest since the pre‑COVID era of 2017 and marks the second‑largest total in the 13‑year data series beginning in 2011.

B. Flight Volume and Ground Transportation

• Flights: AAA forecasts 7.6 million domestic flights on Thanksgiving Day itself, a 12 % increase from 2024. The number of outbound and return flights is expected to climb to 3.4 million each over the long weekend, up from roughly 2.9 million the previous year.
• Ground Transport: An additional 1.4 million travelers will rely on car, bus, or train, with personal vehicles making up the majority (approximately 65 %).

C. Trip Length and Spending

The average holiday trip will last 5.3 days, up from 4.8 days in 2024. AAA projects an average spend of $1,250 per traveler, bringing the total holiday travel revenue to roughly $12.7 billion—a 9 % rise over the 2024 total.

2. Who Is Traveling? A New Profile of Holiday Explorers

A. Family‑Centric Travel

Family groups remain the dominant segment, with 44 % of travelers traveling with children aged 0‑12 and 36 % with teenagers. AAA notes that families are increasingly favoring multiday vacations that combine Thanksgiving dinner with a weekend getaway—often choosing destinations within a six‑hour flight or a four‑hour drive.

B. Generation Z and Millennials

This cohort is becoming a more significant force, accounting for 22 % of holiday trips. Their travel style is characterized by: - Shorter stays (average 3‑4 days) - A preference for “staycations” or urban weekend trips - A higher likelihood of using rideshare services and Airbnb-style lodging

C. Retirees and Senior Travelers

Retired travelers are projected to represent 12 % of the holiday crowd, a 5 % increase from last year. They tend to favor shorter trips (4–5 days) to locations with good dining options and mild weather, such as coastal towns or resort cities.

3. Destinations: From Classic to Emerging

The article points out that West Coast urban hubs—San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle—are expected to see the highest growth, each attracting at least 10 % more travelers than in 2024. Meanwhile, mid‑western destinations like Minneapolis‑Saint Paul and Chicago are forecasted to rebound strongly as the “homecoming” trend returns.

A few emerging hotspots identified in the AAA analysis include: - Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC—leveraging their historic charm for Thanksgiving dinner parties - Nashville, TN—combining music, Southern cuisine, and a family-friendly atmosphere - Austin, TX—appealing to Gen‑Z travelers with its vibrant culture and outdoor festivals

4. Accommodation: From Hotels to Short‑Term Rentals

The AAA forecast underscores a steady rise in short‑term rentals, which now account for 27 % of all Thanksgiving lodging bookings. This share is projected to climb to 32 % by 2025, reflecting the ongoing consumer shift toward home‑style accommodations. Hotels, particularly in urban centers, are expected to maintain 48 % of market share, while vacation rentals and boutique inns will occupy the remaining portion.

Price trends show an average nightly rate of $280 for hotels, a 5 % increase from 2024. For short‑term rentals, the average nightly price is $200, up 7 % year‑over‑year.

5. Planning Tips: Making the Most of the Holiday Surge

Travel + Leisure’s article cites AAA’s “10‑step Holiday Travel Planner” guide (linked in the piece), which advises travelers to: 1. Book early—especially for popular destinations and hotels 2. Look for package deals that bundle flights, hotels, and car rentals 3. Consider flexible dates to avoid the peak Thursday‑Friday rush 4. Utilize loyalty programs for points and upgrades 5. Plan meals ahead—many hotels are offering “Thanksgiving in a Box” options for travelers who prefer to dine at home

The article also encourages travelers to explore “staycation” possibilities to reduce cost and environmental impact, especially for families living near major cities.

6. Industry Outlook: From Supply to Sustainability

A. Airline Capacity and Crew Availability

A secondary source linked in the article—an industry‑wide report on “Future Airline Capacity Trends”—alerts carriers that while demand will increase, the industry must balance the need for additional flights with a shortage of qualified crew members. This could lead to premium ticket pricing on the busiest routes.

B. Hotel Supply Constraints

The “Hotel Supply Gap” analysis warns that while demand is high, many hoteliers are still recovering from pandemic‑related closures and renovations. As a result, room availability in high‑demand markets may remain tight, potentially pushing prices up.

C. Sustainability Initiatives

AAA’s own “Sustainability Playbook” (a separate PDF linked within the Travel + Leisure article) highlights how hotels and airlines are integrating greener practices—such as carbon offset programs, energy‑efficient building designs, and waste‑reduction initiatives—to cater to increasingly eco‑conscious travelers.

7. Takeaway: A Boom with Nuances

The 2025 Thanksgiving travel forecast paints a picture of a robust, record‑setting holiday season, driven by families, a younger generation of travelers, and a renewed appetite for domestic adventure. The numbers—10.2 million travelers, $12.7 billion in revenue, 5.3‑day average stays—signal a bright future for the U.S. travel industry.

Yet, as the article and its referenced sources suggest, there are operational challenges ahead. Airlines must manage crew shortages, hotels need to balance supply and demand, and both sectors must keep sustainability in mind to meet the expectations of today’s informed traveler.

For anyone planning a Thanksgiving getaway, the key message is straightforward: Book early, be flexible, and take advantage of emerging trends in destinations, accommodation, and travel packages to make the most of what promises to be the biggest holiday travel season in a decade.