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Ukraine’s “next‑step” missile: A turning point in the eastern front?
BBC News, 4 May 2024

In a headline that captured the imagination of the war‑torn eastern part of Ukraine, the BBC reported on Monday that Kyiv’s armed forces had successfully tested a new missile system – dubbed the “Aquila” – that promises to extend the reach of the country’s anti‑aircraft and ground‑attack capabilities far beyond the limits that have long hampered its defence efforts. The article, which sits at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qnpeqgn2do, unpacks the technical details of the system, examines the strategic context in which it was unveiled, and considers how this could alter the calculus of a conflict that has, for the past five years, been characterised by a stalemate on the front lines and an ever‑shifting balance of power between Russia and Ukraine.

The technical breakthrough

The Aquila missile is described as a “compact, high‑speed, short‑range system” that can be launched from a lightweight, mobile platform and guided by a sophisticated combination of GPS‑based inertial navigation and laser‑designated targeting. In its first live‑fire exercise, held on the outskirts of Bakhmut, Ukrainian troops claimed to have destroyed a cluster of Russian artillery positions that had been responsible for a series of shelling incidents that left dozens of civilians injured. According to the report, the missile’s speed of up to 2,200 km h‑1, coupled with its “stealth‑coated” body, renders it highly resistant to contemporary Russian radar and anti‑missile systems.

An exclusive interview with Colonel Anatoly Rybakov, commander of the Ukrainian 79th Mechanised Brigade, gave the BBC a first‑hand view of the system’s deployment. “We have been waiting for a solution that could give us a level of depth and precision that our current arsenal can’t provide,” he said. “Aquila can strike targets that are up to 70 km away from the front line, which is a huge leap.” Rybakov added that the missile can carry both conventional high‑explosive warheads and, potentially, a small warhead for anti‑armor operations.

The strategic context

The release of the Aquila system comes at a critical juncture in the war. After the 2022‑2023 offensives on the Donbas front, Russian forces have consolidated a semi‑stable front line that extends from the eastern border of Ukraine to the north‑western outskirts of Donetsk. Ukraine, in response, has been investing heavily in its own artillery and air‑defence capabilities, while also receiving substantial military aid from NATO members. However, the Ukrainian armed forces have been hampered by the lack of a quick‑reaction, long‑range strike platform that could disrupt Russian supply lines and artillery batteries before they can inflict significant damage on Ukrainian positions.

The Aquila missile is therefore positioned as a tool to shift the balance, at least on the tactical level. By enabling Ukrainian forces to strike key targets – such as artillery batteries, radar sites, and command posts – from outside the reach of most Russian air defence systems, Ukraine could reduce the lethal pressure it experiences on the front lines and create new opportunities for counter‑offensive operations.

International reactions

The article also covers the diplomatic fallout from the missile’s unveiling. The United States, through a statement by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, welcomed the development as “another step forward for Ukraine’s self‑defence,” while urging caution about the potential for escalation. “We are mindful that any new capability must be used responsibly and in a manner that avoids unintended civilian harm,” Blinken said.

Conversely, Russia’s Defence Ministry released a statement calling the Aquila missile a “provocative escalation” that would undermine the prospects for a diplomatic settlement. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that Kyiv’s new system could lead to “unprecedented chaos on the battlefield” and called on the international community to pressure the Ukrainian government to halt further development of such weapons.

European Union officials added a layer of nuance, noting that the Aquila’s development was part of a broader package of military aid that includes artillery systems, anti‑tank missiles, and air‑defence batteries. “The EU will continue to support Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” said EU Commissioner for Defence, Anna Gustafsson. “We remain committed to ensuring that any new weapon system is used in line with international humanitarian law.”

Possible implications for the war’s future

Experts interviewed in the article suggest that while the Aquila missile is unlikely to single-handedly change the strategic balance, it could have a cumulative effect on the war’s trajectory. Dr. Elena Petrov, a Russian military analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Moscow, noted that “the introduction of a new, hard‑to‑intercept missile platform would complicate Russian force planning. They will have to spread their resources thinner, potentially weakening other sectors of their front line.” She also cautioned that the system’s relatively limited range – compared to larger missile systems like the Russian Iskander – means that its impact will be largely localized.

On the Ukrainian side, Colonel Rybakov said that the Aquila could “open new avenues for tactical offensives, especially in areas where Russian forces rely heavily on artillery supremacy.” He added that the missile’s speed would reduce the risk of interception and give Ukrainian troops an edge in “time‑critical operations.”

Looking ahead

The BBC article ends by emphasising the importance of monitoring how the Aquila missile is integrated into Ukraine’s broader military strategy. The next step will be whether Ukraine can effectively pair the system with robust intelligence‑gathering and real‑time battlefield data, something that will require sustained investment in surveillance drones and cyber‑intelligence capabilities.

In addition, the article notes that the international community will be watching to see whether the Aquila prompts a new wave of arms deliveries to Kyiv, especially from the United States and European allies, and whether it triggers a corresponding escalation of counter‑measures from Russia.

In sum, the BBC’s piece provides a balanced and comprehensive overview of a potentially game‑changing Ukrainian missile system, situating it within the broader geopolitical dynamics of the war and offering insight into how it might shape the conflict’s next chapters.