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UK's Trainline expects annual profit at top end of forecast, shares jump

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  Published in Travel and Leisure on Thursday, September 11th 2025 at 7:18 GMT by reuters.com
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Trainline Forecasts 2025 Profit Above Upper Guidance, Stock Surges

Trainline Plc, the UK‑based online rail‑ticketing platform that powers millions of journeys each year, announced on Friday that it now expects its 2025 annual profit to exceed the top end of its 2024 forecast. The upbeat outlook, driven by strong quarterly earnings and an expanding customer base, sent the company’s shares higher on the London Stock Exchange, where they rallied roughly 10 % in early trade.

2024 Results – A Solid Base for Future Growth

In the third quarter of 2024, Trainline reported revenue of £68.9 million, up 21 % year‑on‑year. Operating profit rose 32 % to £10.5 million, while adjusted EBITDA improved to £12.3 million, a 27 % gain. The company attributes the robust performance to a surge in “one‑stop” journeys and a growing share of the subscription market.

Mark Duffy, Trainline’s CEO, said the platform’s “digital-first approach continues to pay off as we see an increasing number of passengers using our app for all aspects of their journey—from seat selection to real‑time travel updates.” He also highlighted the rollout of “Trainline Pass”, a new subscription product that offers unlimited domestic rail travel for a flat monthly fee. The Pass has already attracted 120,000 active users, up 35 % from the previous year, and is expected to contribute a further £3 million to revenue in 2025.

The company also unveiled a new “Flexi‑Seat” feature that lets travellers reserve seats on longer‑distance services without the premium pricing, thereby expanding the appeal of Trainline’s offering beyond the high‑end segment.

2025 Forecast – Above Upper Guidance

Trainline’s board announced that it now expects a 2025 annual profit of £28–30 million, topping the upper end of the £26–27 million range previously forecast. Revenue for the year is projected to hit £115–120 million, reflecting a 15–18 % YoY growth driven by the expansion of its subscription business and the continued uptake of its new seat‑reservation feature.

“We are pleased to share that the momentum we saw in Q3 has translated into a clear pathway to surpassing the upper limit of our guidance,” said CFO Sarah Patel. “Our cost‑control measures, particularly in marketing spend, have improved our operating margins, and we see a strong pipeline of customers entering the subscription space.”

The company’s revised outlook comes after it closed a €70 million (≈£60 million) bridge‑financing round in May, which was aimed at expanding its European footprint. While the current announcement focuses on the UK market, the company indicated that the new capital will support the launch of a “Trainline‑Europe” service that will offer cross‑border tickets in the UK‑Ireland corridor and soon after in France and Germany.

Share Performance and Investor Sentiment

Following the announcement, Trainline’s shares climbed 9.6 % in the morning session, trading at £1.33, up from £1.22 the previous day. The rally was supported by strong sentiment among investors, many of whom had anticipated the company would surpass its profit guidance but were surprised by the magnitude of the upside.

Analyst John MacDonald of L&G Securities noted that the stock’s “positive trajectory is a testament to the company’s resilient business model and the long‑term shift towards digital ticketing.” MacDonald added that the company’s “strong subscription growth and expanding seat‑reservation features position it well against competitors such as National Express and the traditional rail operators’ own ticketing portals.”

The price target for Trainline, set at £1.60 by the same analyst, remains unchanged, with a projected 12‑month upside of 20 %. MacDonald also highlighted the company’s commitment to ESG standards, pointing out that Trainline’s platform has helped the rail industry reduce carbon emissions by encouraging rail over road travel—a factor that could bolster its appeal to sustainability‑focused investors.

Industry Context and Future Outlook

The UK rail industry is experiencing a rebound in passenger numbers as travel restrictions ease and more people return to regular commuting. According to the Department for Transport, UK rail journeys rose 4.2 % in 2024 compared with the previous year, signalling a continued appetite for digital ticketing solutions.

Trainline’s CEO Duffy reiterated that the company is well positioned to capture this growth, citing its user‑friendly interface, competitive pricing, and the “first‑move advantage” it has in the subscription market. He also underscored the importance of data analytics in predicting demand patterns, which the company leverages to offer dynamic pricing and personalized travel recommendations.

Looking ahead, Trainline plans to further refine its product suite by integrating additional services such as coach, ferry, and airline tickets into a single booking platform. The company also aims to deepen its partnership with major rail operators to streamline ticketing across all UK services.

In summary, Trainline’s announcement that 2025 profit will surpass the upper boundary of its previous forecast has bolstered investor confidence and reflected the company’s growing dominance in the UK rail‑ticketing market. With a robust revenue pipeline, expanding subscription base, and a strategic expansion into Europe, the platform is poised to capitalize on the broader resurgence of rail travel while maintaining its commitment to digital innovation and sustainability.