Amber Kanwar's Weekly Setup: Canadian inflation and big box retail earnings

Published in Travel and Leisure on Sunday, August 17th 2025 at 22:42 GMT by The Globe and Mail
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Among the few companies reporting this week are Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe's

Amber Kanwar’s Weekly Market Setup: Canadian Inflation and Big-Box Retail Earnings in Focus

In her latest weekly market analysis, financial expert Amber Kanwar delves into the key economic events and corporate developments poised to influence North American markets. The spotlight falls on upcoming Canadian inflation figures and a slew of earnings reports from major big-box retailers, which could provide critical insights into consumer spending trends, economic health, and potential shifts in monetary policy. Kanwar emphasizes that these data points arrive at a pivotal moment, as investors grapple with persistent inflationary pressures, fluctuating interest rates, and evolving retail dynamics amid a backdrop of global economic uncertainty.

Starting with Canadian inflation, Kanwar highlights the eagerly anticipated release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, scheduled for Tuesday. This report is expected to show a slight deceleration in headline inflation, potentially dipping to around 2.5% year-over-year from June's 2.7%. Core inflation measures, which exclude volatile items like food and energy, are also projected to ease marginally, possibly to 2.6%. Kanwar notes that these figures are crucial for the Bank of Canada, which has already implemented two rate cuts this year in response to cooling price pressures. A softer-than-expected CPI could reinforce expectations for another rate reduction at the bank's September meeting, providing relief to borrowers and stimulating economic activity. However, if inflation surprises on the upside—perhaps driven by lingering supply chain issues or robust wage growth—it might force policymakers to pause, potentially leading to volatility in Canadian equities and the loonie. Kanwar points out historical patterns where inflation surprises have triggered sharp movements in sectors like financials and real estate, advising investors to monitor bond yields closely as a barometer of market sentiment.

Shifting to the retail sector, Kanwar underscores the importance of earnings season for big-box giants, which serve as bellwethers for consumer resilience. Walmart kicks off the reports on Thursday, with analysts forecasting solid revenue growth driven by its grocery dominance and e-commerce expansion. Kanwar discusses how Walmart's performance could signal whether low- and middle-income shoppers are still prioritizing essentials amid higher living costs, or if they're pulling back due to stretched budgets. Following Walmart, Home Depot and Target are set to report, offering a broader view of discretionary spending. Home Depot's results might reflect the state of the housing market, where elevated mortgage rates have dampened home improvement projects, while Target's focus on affordable fashion and home goods could highlight shifts in consumer preferences toward value-oriented purchases.

Kanwar expands on the broader implications for the retail landscape, noting that these companies have been navigating a challenging environment marked by supply chain disruptions, rising labor costs, and competition from online platforms like Amazon. She references recent trends, such as the resurgence of in-store shopping post-pandemic, but warns of headwinds from potential tariff hikes if U.S. trade policies shift under a new administration. For instance, Walmart and Target, with significant exposure to imported goods, could face margin pressures if input costs rise. Kanwar suggests that positive surprises in same-store sales or forward guidance could boost investor confidence, potentially lifting retail ETFs and related stocks. Conversely, weak outlooks might exacerbate concerns about a consumer slowdown, echoing recent warnings from economists about recession risks.

Beyond these focal points, Kanwar touches on other market movers for the week. In the U.S., retail sales data for July, due on Thursday, will complement the earnings reports by quantifying overall consumer spending. Expectations are for a modest 0.3% monthly increase, but any deviation could influence Federal Reserve rate cut bets. Kanwar also mentions housing starts and building permits data, which might underscore the drag from high interest rates on the real estate sector. On the corporate front, earnings from tech firms like Applied Materials and Deere & Company could provide color on industrial demand and semiconductor trends, while Estée Lauder's report might reveal insights into luxury consumer behavior.

From a technical perspective, Kanwar offers setups for traders, pointing to the S&P/TSX Composite Index's recent rebound from summer lows. She identifies potential support levels around 22,500 and resistance near 23,000, advising caution amid low summer volumes that could amplify reactions to news. For individual stocks, she flags opportunities in beaten-down retailers if earnings beat expectations, and in financials if inflation data supports rate cuts. Kanwar stresses the value of diversification, recommending a mix of defensive plays like utilities and growth-oriented tech amid uncertainty.

In her analysis, Kanwar weaves in macroeconomic context, noting how global factors—such as European Central Bank policies and Asian manufacturing data—could indirectly impact Canadian markets through trade linkages. She cautions against over-reliance on short-term data, urging a long-term view that considers structural shifts like the green energy transition and AI adoption, which are reshaping investment landscapes.

Overall, Kanwar's setup paints a picture of a market at a crossroads, where inflation trends and retail health will dictate near-term direction. Investors are encouraged to stay vigilant, as these releases could either reinforce the soft-landing narrative or reignite fears of economic turbulence. By blending data-driven insights with strategic advice, her commentary equips readers to navigate the week's volatility with informed confidence, potentially identifying opportunities in undervalued sectors or hedging against downside risks. This comprehensive outlook underscores the interconnectedness of economic indicators and corporate performance in driving market sentiment. (Word count: 842)

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